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Review of market conditions in the previous trading day
The rise of the small non-farm peasant dollar is still blocked, and the market waits for key non-agricultural. European and American stock markets fell across the board, international gold prices closed down, and international oil prices tumbled. On this trading day, the market is concerned about the performance of the US initial and ISM manufacturing. Foreign exchange: Euro sterling AUD/USD closed at 0.7515; USD/JPY closed at 103.41; USD/CAD closed at 1.3104; USD/CHF closed at 0.9836. Commodities: Spot gold closed at $1308.45 per ounce; Comex gold futures closed at $1316.5 per ounce; spot silver closed at $18.66 per ounce; Comex silver futures closed at $18.707 per ounce; Brent crude closed at $47.04 per barrel; NYMEX crude oil closed 44.70 US dollars / barrel. European and American stock markets: Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 53.42 points, or 0.29%, to 18,400.88 points; Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed down 5.17 points, or 0.24%, to 2,170.95 points; Nasdaq index closed down 9.77 points , or 0.19%, closed at 5,213.22 points. The British stock FTSE 100 index closed down 0.58%, the French stock CAC index closed down 0.43%, and the German stock DAX index fell 0.61%.
In terms of economic data, data released by data processing company ADP on Wednesday (August 31) showed that the ADP employment report, which is known as the small non-agricultural sector, showed that the number of ADP employment in the United States continued to increase in August, and slightly better than market expectations. Data show that the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 177,000 in August, in line with the expected increase of 175,000. The previous value was revised to increase by 194,000 and the initial value increased by 179,000.
Foreign exchange market
In the last trading day, the euro/dollar opened at 1.1137 during the New York session. During the session, it rose slightly and the market fluctuated around 1.1154. The euro zone announced that the economic data was mixed, and the CPI released by Germany recorded a negative value. The overall trend of the euro was soft. From a technical point of view, the MACD green kinetic energy column is steadily stretched, and the KDJ indicator is at a low level, indicating that the recent decline in the exchange rate has temporarily eased. The initial resistance is 1.1179, the further resistance is at 1.1217, the more critical resistance is at 1.1243; the initial support for the downside is at 1.1115, the further support is at 1.1089, and the more critical support is at 1.1051. GBP/USD opened at 1.3118 during the session and rose slightly during the session, trading around 1.3139 at the end of the session. The UK's recent economic data is better than expected, and the pound's short position is in the extreme background, the pound against the dollar to further room for a moderate increase. However, if the US non-farm payrolls report in August is strong and strengthens the Fed’s recent interest rate hike expectations, then the GBP/USD seems to be easy to adjust downwards. From a technical point of view, the MACD red kinetic energy column contracted slightly, and the KDJ indicator turned upwards below the midline, indicating that the exchange rate has not subsided in the near future. The initial resistance of the exchange rate is at 1.3173, the further resistance is at 1.3212, and the more critical resistance is at 1.3266. The initial support for the downside is at 1.3080, the further support is at 1.3026, and the more critical support is at 1.2987. USD/JPY opened at 103.39, and it fluctuated within a narrow range during the session, with the market closing around 103.34. The Bank of Japan’s deliberative member, Mr. Noo, said on Wednesday (August 31) in Niigata, Japan, to speak to business leaders about Japan’s consumption, inflation targets, and economic prospects. Japan’s consumer spending continues to fall, which has caused concerns among Bank of Japan officials. The Bank of Japan will meet again next month. From a technical point of view, the MACD red kinetic energy column expanded slightly, and the KDJ indicator rose at a high level, indicating that the recent upside risk of the exchange rate is still relatively large. The initial resistance of the exchange rate is at 103.67, the further resistance is at 103.94, and the more critical resistance is at 104.35. The initial support for the downside is at 102.99, the further support is at 102.58, and the more critical support is at 102.31.
stock market
US energy stocks closed lower on Wednesday (August 31) as energy stocks followed lower oil prices. The S&P 500 index has fallen for the first time since February. In August, the Nasdaq index rose 1%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.1%, and the index showed resilience after hitting a record high in mid-August. The closing level on Wednesday was only less than 1% lower than the record closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 53.42 points, or 0.29%, to 18,400.88. The S&P 500 closed down 5.17 points, or 0.24%, to 2,170.95 points. The Nasdaq index closed down 9.77 points, or 0.19 points. %, closed at 5,213.22 points. Today, the volume of trading in the US stock exchanges is about 6.82 billion shares, and the average daily trading volume in the past 20 days is 5.98 billion shares. The ratio of stocks falling on the New York Stock Exchange was 1.69:1; the ratio of Nasdaq stocks falling and rising stocks was 1.73:1. Four of the S&P 500 constituent stocks hit a 52-week high, with two constituent stocks hitting a new low; 103 Nasdaq index stocks hit a 52-week high and 22 hit a new low.
Affected by the decline in mining and energy stocks, European stock markets fell slightly on Wednesday (August 31), but bank stocks continued their recent gains as rumors of mergers and acquisitions in the troubled banking sector. The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.4%, which was weighed down by mining stocks and oil prices. The British stock FTSE 100 index closed down 0.58%, the French stock CAC index closed down 0.43%, and the German stock DAX index fell 0.61%.
Major Canadian stock indexes fell on Wednesday (August 31), and crude oil and gold prices fell, weighing energy stocks and mining stocks. Interest-sensitive stocks such as financial stocks fell as investors considered the path that the US is likely to take to raise interest rates. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index fell 87.70 points, or 0.60%, to 14,597.15 points. The S&P/TSX composite stock index rose 0.1% in August, but the current level is slightly lower than the 13-month high hit in the middle of the month.
Bond market
The US index 10-year bond yields did not change much on Wednesday (August 31), but this month's increase was the biggest in more than a year. Due to strong US economic data and limited market volatility, investors' demand for safe-haven US debt fell. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose nearly 11 basis points in August, the largest monthly increase since June last year. The two-year bond yields were also the biggest increase this month, as data and a number of Fed officials’ comments on raising interest rates before the end of the year raised expectations for interest rate hikes. The yield on public debt for the biennium rose by about 13 basis points. According to a report by ADP Employer Services, a private employment service agency, 177,000 new jobs were created this month, a slight increase from analysts' estimate of 175,000 and 194,000 new jobs in July. Today's US bond yields fell, analysts said it may be due to buying from overseas investors.
Spanish bond yields rose sharply on Wednesday, and index bond yields returned to above 1%. Later parliamentary vote could lead to Spain's re-election or end the eight-month political deadlock. The Socialist Party of Spain is expected to vote against Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in a vote of confidence. Spanish 10-year bond yields rose by 6 basis points to 1.01%, while other second-tier eurozone bond yields rose by 2-3 basis points. Speaking of Spain, Benjamin Schroeder, senior interest rate strategist at ING, said, “Today will be the first test, but it is generally expected that this will only start a series of procedures. More focus is on Friday's vote.†Germany and Portugal On Wednesday, they sold 4 billion euros and 1 billion euros in public debt. Finland has issued a new seven-year public debt, which is the first syndicated underwriting public debt of the euro zone member states. Eurozone inflation data released on Wednesday showed that the inflation rate in August was steady at 0.2%, slightly lower than market estimates. This puts pressure on the ECB to take action.
China's inter-bank bond market fell slightly in early trading on Wednesday (August 31). Traders said that market sentiment has recovered slightly, some institutions are involved in buying, and the first and second levels are improving. However, the overall mentality is still not cautious. The macro data will be released tomorrow, and whether it is better than expected is still to be further clarified. The latest offer for CDB 160210, which has a remaining term of nearly 10 years on Wednesday, is 3.1975%/3.1850%, compared with 3.2200%/3.1750% on the previous day. At the same time, China's financial futures exchange's five-year bond futures contract TF1612 closed at 101.295 yuan in early trading, up 0.02% from the previous day's settlement price; the 10-year government bond main contract T1612 closed at 100.725 yuan, up 0.08% from the previous settlement price. In the primary market, the Treasury Department renewed the fixed-rate government bonds for the two-year tender in the morning. The weighted winning rate was 2.3436%, which was lower than the previous forecast of 2.37%. At the same time, the seven-year new fixed-rate government bonds with tenders, the winning bid rate of 2.75%. It is also below the predicted average of 2.79%. The bidding multiples of the two-year renewed government bonds were 3.20 times and 3.47 times. On the face of Chinese funds, the last day of trading in China, the Chinese interbank market was looser in early morning trading, and the overnight repo rate fell slightly. The central bank’s open market turned into a net return but had little impact. Traders said that after several days of net liquidity in the open market, liquidity pressures have eased, and funds for each period are not difficult. China’s central bank’s open market carried out a 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on Wednesday, including a four-day period of 40 billion yuan and a 14-day period of 10 billion yuan. The winning bid rate was flat at 2.25% and 2.40% respectively. According to the reverse repurchase period due today, The net return of 40 billion yuan in a single day was the first net return of nearly seven trading days.
Commodity market
International spot gold on Wednesday (August 31) Asian market opened at 1310.75 US dollars / ounce in the morning after the shock, the bulls once recorded an intraday high of 1316.04 US dollars / ounce and then fell. The European gold price continued to fall, and there was a rebound during the period, but the decline did not stop. The US market continued its decline, and the gold price dipped in short-term. After recording an intraday low of $130.80 per ounce, it bottomed out and then turned around, eventually closing at $1308.45 per ounce. International spot gold on Wednesday (August 31) Asian market opened at 1310.75 US dollars / ounce in early trading, the lowest test of 1304.80 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1316.04 US dollars / ounce, closed at 1308.45 US dollars / ounce, down 2.24 US dollars, a decrease of 0.17% .
COMEX December gold futures on Wednesday (August 31) fell $5.1, a decrease of 0.24% to $1316.5 per ounce.
US WTI crude oil October futures closed down $1.65, or 3.56%, to $44.70 per barrel on Wednesday, August, up 7.48% this month. Brent crude oil futures closed down $1.33, or 2.75%, at $47.04 per barrel on Wednesday, up 7.72% this month. Unexpected increase in crude oil inventories and OPEC production in August is expected to hit a new record high in recent days. Oil prices have been under pressure within the day, but oil prices are still strong this month, supported by the frozen production of oil-producing countries. The rebound, the current market focus is on the non-agricultural data to be announced on Friday, whether the dollar can continue the rise is very important for the oil price trend. US WTI crude oil futures price hit a low of 44.52 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil futures price hit a low of 46.78 yuan / barrel.
Highlights of this trading day
Non-agricultural data Currently, gold can be moderately short due to the presence of signals, and short positions in EUR/USD and spot silver continue to be held.
EUR/USD
Recent trend: bearish holdings. The euro/dollar rebounded slightly yesterday, but it did not pose a threat to the downtrend. The previous short position continued to hold, and the stop loss remained at 1.1210. The target still points to the 1.1078 line. Tomorrow's market will usher in US non-agricultural data. It is expected that the exchange rate trend will not change much before the data is released.
Precious metal
gold
Recent trend: Moderate admission to short. The price of gold continued to be weak yesterday. The daily chart basically closed below 1309.88. It can be moderately short-selled. The target looks at the 1266.55 line and the stop loss refers to the level of 1326.20. However, tomorrow's non-agricultural performance does have the risk of reversing the trend at any time, so the position should not be too large.
Silver: Bearish holdings. Silver maintained a weak pattern yesterday, and the short position continued to hold in the previous period. The stop loss remained unchanged at 18.97, and the target continued to point to the 17.90 level.
In terms of economic data, the focus of attention on Thursday (September 1): 20:30 US initial jobless claims last week; 22:00 US August ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index.
FX168 Editorial Department
2016-9-1
Enter [Sina Finance and Economics Unit] Discussion
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