On the 18th, the central bank invested 30 billion yuan in reverse repurchase, and after the 30 billion yuan reversed repurchase expired, it achieved a net investment of 270 billion yuan. Even considering that there are still 27.5 billion yuan of MLF due, the central bank still posted a net investment of 42.5 billion yuan, while the previous 13 days the central bank has resumed the full-month MLF expiration in advance.
Market participants pointed out that in recent trading days, the central bank not only continued to continue to do MLF, but also increased the intensity of reverse repurchase operations. It also carried out the treasury cash deposit operation, and the overall fund injection exceeded expectations, once again demonstrating its liquidity. Care helps to stabilize market expectations. Although there are still overlapping effects of quarterly tax payment, deposit reserve payment, month-end effect, and new rules of liquidity of monetary fund, it is expected that the central bank will continue to operate flexibly, cut the peaks and fill the valley, and keep the market funds intact. .
OMO volume exceeded expectations
On Wednesday morning, the central bank announced that the liquidity of the banking system was basically stable for the impact of the hedging tax period and the central bank's reverse repurchase, MLF expiration and other factors. On October 18, a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase was conducted by interest rate bidding. operating. Specifically, it includes a 7-day period of 160 billion yuan and a 14-day period of 140 billion yuan. The winning bid rates are 2.45% and 2.60%, respectively, which are the same as last time.
On the same day, there were 30 billion yuan reverse repurchase and 227.5 billion yuan medium-term loan convenience (MLF) expiration. According to the reverse repurchase caliber, the central bank yesterday invested 270 billion yuan, a new high since September 18; even from the full-scale calculation The central bank’s move still achieved a net investment of 42.5 billion yuan and continued to maintain a stable liquidity posture.
It is worth noting that the MLF that expired on the 18th is also the last MLF expiration of this month. The data shows that there are 3 MLFs due this month, which expired at RMB 84 billion on Friday (13th), RMB 128 billion on Tuesday (17th), and 2275 on Wednesday (18th). 100 million yuan, and when the first MLF expired on the 13th, the central bank has carried out 394 billion yuan of MLF operations, one-time hedging of MLF for the whole month, and a net investment of 58.5 billion yuan in medium and long-term funds.
Considering that the 355.5 billion MLF that expired this week has been renewed in advance, and only RMB 170 billion reverse repurchase expires throughout the week, market participants expect that the central bank’s open market operation (OMO) will have a higher probability this week. The liquidity was withdrawn, but from the operation of the previous three days, the central bank’s funding exceeded the market expectations.
On Monday (16th), the central bank resumed the reverse repurchase operation and launched a 20-billion-day 7-day reverse repurchase operation, fully damaging the reverse repurchase amount on the same day. On the same day, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank also launched 80 billion yuan in March. During the treasury cash deposit bidding; on Tuesday (17th), the central bank released a massive repurchase operation of RMB 190 billion. On the same day, there were 60 billion yuan reverse repurchase due, and another RMB 128 billion MLF expired, with a net investment of 2 billion a day. yuan.
Overall, this month, the central bank's open market has exceeded the expectations, not only continued to continue to do MLF, but also significantly increased the reverse repurchase launch this week, while carrying out the three-month treasury cash deposit operation of 80 billion yuan. According to the full-caliber statistics, as of the 18th, the accumulated net investment of this month was 298.5 billion yuan.
Care for liquidity intentions
Market participants pointed out that in view of the recent operation of the central bank in the open market, the central bank's intention to maintain a stable neutrality of monetary policy and overall liquidity is obvious, and its operation of “shaping the peaks and filling the valley†will also help to further stabilize market expectations.
According to industry insiders, after the National Day holiday, as the short-term and medium-term lending rates generally fell, the market capital pressures were alleviated. The central bank’s open market operations basically maintained a small net withdrawal and a fully hedged fine-tuning operation, gradually withdrawing the funds put in September; This week's open market operation of continuous net investment is intended to ease the MLF expiration pressure, and the second is intended to hedge the subsequent tax payment pressure, especially the central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation on Tuesday, the first operation since September 28. .
From the perspective of MLF operations, the central bank last year oversold the first MLF when it expired, indicating that the central bank's monetary policy is still stable. In terms of quantity, the central bank carried out 394 billion yuan of MLF operation on the 13th, and achieved a net investment of 394 billion yuan in a single day. Even considering the expiration of the follow-up MLF, the central bank still invested 58.5 billion yuan in the MLF this month to provide the medium and long-term market. financial support. From the price point of view, the one-year MLF operating rate remained unchanged at 3.20%, and the MLF weighted interest rate has stabilized at 3.20% since June, which also indicates that the central bank maintains a stable attitude towards long-term interest rates.
"From June onwards, the central bank will over-expend the total amount of MLFs due for the whole month when the first MLF expires at the beginning of the month, and the delivery period is one year. Thereafter, other MLFs will expire in the month. the same day, by way of delivery of reverse repurchase hedge. "China Merchants Securities 600 999, 06 099 Hong Kong stocks diagnosis pointed out, will continue over a month ahead of time to do MLF early, help stabilize market expectations earlier. On the one hand, after investing long money early; on the other hand, using reverse repurchase (short money) to hedge other MLFs to expire, to prevent the large amount of maturity on the day, the market shock is too large, until the end of the month, the long-term release of fiscal expenditure, The reverse repo that was placed was continuously recovered. It can be seen that the change in the central bank's operational methods is mainly to alleviate the tax impact of the mid-month in the context of the low bank reserve ratio.
The funds are not loose
Since October, the flexible operation of the central bank in the open market has basically maintained the trend of smooth liquidity. In the inter-bank pledged repo rate market (deposit institutions), the overnight weighted interest rate (DR001) dropped from 2.76% at the beginning of the month to around 2.58%, with a maximum downside of about 22 BP; the representative 7-day weighted rate (DR007) from 2.97. % down to 2.87%, the maximum downside is about 15BP.
Market participants believe that the central bank’s open market operations exceeded expectations this week, indicating that it has a clear and stable attitude to maintain liquidity, and short-term capital fabrics will remain stable, while in the next October, despite quarterly tax payments, payment, The effect of the end of the month, the new rules of the liquidity of the Monetary Fund, etc., but it is expected that the central bank will continue to operate with the goal of “maintaining liquidity is basically stableâ€, and maintain the market by flexibly using a variety of open market tools to “cut the peaks and fill the valleyâ€. The funds are "not loose."
China Merchants Securities said that next week (October 23 to October 27), the tax period will become the main factor affecting liquidity, October is the big month of tax payment, and since October is not the end of the month, the scale of fiscal expenditure at the end of the month The forecast is not large, so the liquidity situation is mainly affected by the reverse repurchase due and the central bank's recovery.
BOC International's fixed-receipt study pointed out that on the whole, there are two main factors that are relatively unfavourable in terms of funds in the near future. First, in October, the tax payment month is expected to be relatively large. Second, the quarter-end deposits generally have seasonality. Growth, the base of the payment has increased. Based on two factors, the pressure on funds will increase from the next two trading days, and the overall balance will remain at a tight balance. The brokerage analyst also pointed out that from the point of view, the tax payment point in October will be postponed to 23, staggered from the time when the MLF expires, so that the superposition of the two will lead to increased funding, and also The fiscal expenditure is close to being synchronized, and to some extent, it can alleviate the financial strain caused by the misplacement of taxes and expenditures. It is expected that the funds will be smoothly transitioned.
From the point of view of the comprehensive institutions, although the ultra-storage rate is low and the short-term disturbance is superimposed, the subsequent fund fluctuations may be inevitable. However, under the background of the central bank maintaining a stable and neutral monetary policy, the central bank has sufficient control to maintain the smooth operation of liquidity. It is still the norm that the funds are not loose. Just as Guoxin Securities 002,736, said clinic shares, regardless of the amount of money due, in the context of the implementation of a neutral monetary policy of the central bank, the central bank will combine the overall market funds face the situation to adjust liquidity, capital of the probability of abnormal tensions Not big.
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