On Monday (April 30), the US dollar index continued to rise in the US market, which is close to the 92 mark. The main non-US currencies and spot gold are on the defensive. However, it is worth noting that the US dollar index recorded a longer upper shadow last Friday. Has the rebound been over? This issue may depend more on non-beauty than on the US dollar; this week's focus is on the hourly payroll in the UK PMI and non-agricultural reports. In addition, in the US market, the US oil oil short-term surged nearly $1.50, which also caused widespread concern.
In the US market, the US dollar broke out again, climbing to 91.93, approaching the 92 mark. The euro, the pound and the Australian dollar fell across the board. Spot gold also continued its previous decline, with the lowest approaching 1310...
(US refers to the 30-minute chart, source: FX168 financial network)
The UK's first-quarter GDP data released last Friday was significantly worse than market expectations, causing the pound to fall across the board; on the other hand, after the better-than-expected US first-quarter GDP data, the recent strong US dollar fell back to the full correction: ICE USD After hitting a high of 91.99, the index dropped back to 91.50, and a long upper shadow was recorded on the daily chart.
Can the dollar rebound correction that began on April 17 or February 16 continue? Or is it over? This is the most common problem in the market right now. The answer to this question may still be to start from non-beauty, and the dollar itself may be powerless. Since 2017, the logical focus of the foreign exchange market has shifted from the Fed to the non-US monetary policy prospects. The macroeconomic conditions of non-US households/regions and central bank dynamics explain most of the foreign exchange market fluctuations, while data from the US side, especially The impact of good data is often limited, as the market reaction after the US GDP data last Friday.
This week, the market will mainly face risks such as the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision, the UK May PMI and the US May non-farm report. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue to wait and see for a few months. The Fed may not raise any fluctuations at this meeting. The UK PMI may be crucial for the pound that fell sharply in the previous two weeks, instead of the agricultural report for the US dollar. It is still said that it is still the most important part of the hourly wage.
In terms of news, the latest data shows that the US PCE price index rose to 2% in March. It is also the first time the Fed's preferred inflation indicator hit a 2% target in the past year, further strengthening the expectation of raising interest rates.
According to data released by the US Department of Commerce on Monday, the US PCE price index rose by 2% in March, which was 2% higher than the expected value, higher than the previous value of 1.8% (revised to 1.7%); this is also the first time in the year that the US inflation index has reached The Fed’s 2% target.
The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, is considered by the Fed as a better indicator of the underlying trend of inflation. The US core PCE price index rose by 1.9% year-on-year in March, in line with the expected 1.9%, higher than the previous value of 1.6%, which is the largest annual increase since April 2012.
The Wall Street Journal wrote that the Fed’s more popular inflation indicator, the US PCE price index, recorded an annual rate of 2% in March, the first time since February last year that it reached the target set by the Fed. In addition, the US core in March The annual rate of the PCE price index also recorded the highest value of 1.9% since February last year. These are the latest signals showing that the US inflation is strong, which can support the Fed to raise interest rates during the year.
On the political level, according to Fox News, US Finance Minister Nuchin said that he will hold a trade dialogue with China on Thursday and Friday to discuss trade imbalances, intellectual property rights, joint venture technology and joint ventures.
In an interview with Fox News, Nuchin said that he is optimistic about trade negotiations with China. Nuchin said, "There will be very frank discussions. These are the issues that President Trump has been paying attention to last year. We will make progress, and this is our goal."
Nuchin said that he is cautiously optimistic about trade negotiations with China.
"I don't want to predict what will happen or not happen in the future. We will have a very frank discussion. These are the issues that President Trump has been paying attention to last year. We will make progress, and this is our goal," he said.
Nuchin also pointed out that President Trump’s economic team met regularly to discuss tariff issues, and Trump has not yet decided on steel tariff exemptions.
A month ago, the United States decided to impose 25% and 10% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, respectively, but the EU, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Australia, South Korea and other allies have been temporarily exempted. This exemption period will end on May 1.
Analysts pointed out that if Trump continues to levy taxes, this move will inevitably trigger a global trade war, and financial markets will also be affected. Fortunately, Trump still has the last 24 hours...
This week, the market focused on the Fed policy meeting and the US April non-farm employment report.
The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates at the end of the two-day meeting on Wednesday, but investors will pay close attention to signs of a rate hike in June.
Bipan Rai, head of foreign exchange strategy at Imperial Bank of Canada, said that if there is no solid evidence that interest rates will rise in June, then you may see some defensive pressure on the dollar.
Investors are also concerned about the April employment report released on Friday to look for further signs of a strong US economic momentum.
“All major currencies will usher in a busy week, and traders’ interest is focused on new news and data. The US non-farm payrolls report released on Friday is usually the most market-influenced event in the next few days, but Wednesday The FOMC meeting is at the top of our watch list," Konstantinos Anthis, head of ADS Securities Research, said in a report.
He added: "The Fed will raise interest rates again in June, and we believe that they will use this month's meeting to convey their intention to pull the trigger again, which will make the dollar rise sharply."
As the US dollar continued to rise, spot gold fell sharply, falling to a low of $1310.10 per ounce during the day, but then quickly narrowed the decline and is now trading near 1317. Spot silver hit a minimum of $16.184 per ounce.
(Spot gold 30 minutes chart, source: FX168 financial network)
According to foreign media reports, silver-backed ETF positions decreased by 6 million ounces, or 0.9%, the largest decline since January 2015, as the tensions in the United States and North Korea eased, and the prospect of rising interest rates also inhibited the safe-haven demand for precious metals, and Since silver is weaker than gold, investors are also withdrawing from silver investment.
Phil Streible, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said the dollar should continue to rise as signs of economic strength. It also pointed out that gold may fall to $1,300 this week, as the US employment report may further show improved economic expansion.
FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga said on Friday that if the dollar continues to appreciate, gold may suffer further “punishmentâ€.
Otunuga said that from a technical point of view, if the price of gold can not exceed 1,324 US dollars / ounce, there is still room to fall to 1,300 US dollars / ounce.
In addition, the US and the two oil short-term rise, WTI crude oil short-term surge of 1.40 US dollars, refreshed daily high to 68.64 US dollars / barrel; Brent crude oil also rose, short-term rise nearly 1.50 US dollars, refreshed daily high to 74.85 yuan / barrel.
(US oil 30 minutes chart, source: FX168 financial network)
According to statistics, NYMEX's most active WTI crude oil futures contract has a volume of 10,622 lots in 22:03 Beijing time, and the total value of the trading contract is more than 700 million US dollars.
According to foreign media reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address the media at 1 am Beijing time on May 1 (Tuesday) to announce relevant information on Iran’s nuclear program.
In addition, foreign media reports pointed out that Israeli officials were banned from speaking to the media before Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the information.
Finance Zerohod pointed out that the news from the Israeli media Channel 10 can be given two hints of the content of the Israeli press conference on Tuesday at 1 am.
1. Israel will indicate that Iran has misled the world on nuclear projects; 2. Israel will hold telephone calls with the UK, France and Germany after the conference.
(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)
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