HC Plastics News: Until now, the domestic polyester market is still hot, and the speculation is still there. Last Thursday, at the "Pure" PTA theme salon held in Suzhou, "oversold", "zero inventory", and some tight specifications of production and sales were hot, and the "good voice" in the polyester market continued.
The polyester market "good voice" constantly
“Look at the recent market gains, especially FDY, which has risen more than a thousand dollars a month.†Market participants bluntly, like real estate, every day is a new price, but also to raise funds, slow to even source Not enough. It is said that it will continue to rise, too capricious!
You don't have to be expensive, and it's good to have the goods out! Even the customer's consulting methods have changed in the polyester market. From the original "how much money, can not be less" has changed the current "price has not gone up, I will pay in the past!"
However, the market is crazy more than that, the terminal started - price increases! Leaders meeting - price increases, futures higher - price increases, environmental protection and production - price increases. After the "real estate fever", the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces set off another wave of "polyester heat."
In the face of the current rising polyester market, many industry insiders say that such performance is indeed far beyond market expectations. After all, before 2016, the polyester market is far from the “hotâ€. The reporter learned that since 2012, the domestic polyester market has been relatively sluggish, and most industry people have been relatively pessimistic about the whole market.
Chen Yi, manager of Hengyi Chemical Fiber New Product Development and Sales, told reporters that since 2012, the profit of sliced ​​chips is very low, basically on the edge of profit and loss. In 2015, the sliced ​​profit was only more than 200 yuan, which is regarded as a capital preservation operation stage. After the G20 in the second half of 2016, as the market orders increased, the polyester market began to slowly turn.
Similarly, Wu Wenhai, the head of Shanghai Dongwu Yuying Investment Management Co., Ltd., has the same feelings. He entered the chemical fiber industry in 2004 and spent five years in the chemical fiber industry. "We used to do FDY before, and it was profitable for a few years. The reason for not profiting is that the upstream raw materials are too strong." In Wu Wenhai's view, the downstream has already ushered in the golden age, the upstream is becoming more and more surplus, and the downstream polyester benefits. When it is getting better, it should be said that the gross profit space is expanding. Compared with polyester companies, PTA is basically not profitable, mainly relying on polyester profit.
“At the beginning of the year, when dealing with friends who made clothing fabrics or clothing exports, they often reflected that the downstream orders this year was the best year since 2014.†Soochow Futures analyst Wang Guangqian said that orders have been issued so far. In theory, it is already in the off-season, but the market is still waiting for orders.
Behind the "hot" market interpretation
In the interview, the reporter learned that the reason why the polyester market is hot, the most important is the downstream demand. The better the downstream demand, the higher the price of polyester will be.
"From tracking the number of listed companies in the relevant listed companies, we can find that the entire apparel industry has been destocking since 2011, and the closing of the store has continued until the end of 2015. In fact, this wave of closed stores corresponds to the apparel industry and the inventory has come to an end." Futures analyst Wang Guangqian said that the entire apparel industry was in the structural optimization stage from 2015 to 2016, and the entire downstream textile and apparel toxic assets and excess capacity were effectively cleared. In particular, 2016 has already obtained a relatively complete clearing, which has significantly improved the operational ecology for the entire downstream textile and apparel industry, which is definitely a big plus for the upstream polyester segment.
When talking about the influencing factors of polyester sales, the guests thought that they mainly considered three aspects.
One is related to relevant policies of the state and local governments. According to Chen Wei, the previous year’s Wuzhen Internet Conference, road restrictions, factory closure, last year’s G20 summit, the entire chemical fiber industry in Hangzhou can be said to have been closed for about half a month, which has had a great impact on the supply and demand relationship in the textile industry. Including the convening of the Xiamen Golden Brick Conference this year, all the dyeing factories in the Quanzhou area of ​​Fujian were basically shut down by 90%, which caused the popularity of polyester production and sales. Recently, including a weaving production limit in the Wujiang area, all the weaving machines use recycled water, and the entire loom should be reduced by about 100,000 units. Why FDY will be better sold because the market is worried that there will be no equipment to do these products after the old machine is eliminated. This will result in a tight supply and demand relationship in the market, which will have a great impact on the supply chain of the grey cloth. The market's "grab the goods" atmosphere.
The second is the impact of environmental factors. It is understood that from 9:00 on the night of June 25, the printing and dyeing enterprises in Wujiang District implemented the measures to suspend production, which undoubtedly brought some panic to the downstream manufacturers. Everyone is rushing to grab the goods, which is why the existing supply is so nervous.
Then there is the impact of the emergency on the polyester industry. For example, on April 6, 2015, the Xiangzhou Xianglu PX explosion caused a rise in the follow-up PTA, causing turmoil in the entire textile industry. “The market has been going down further in 2015, but after the unexpected events on April 6th, the effect of publicity and speculation have caused the downstream polyester sales to be staged, plus the Nanjing Yangtze on April 21st. The petrochemical explosion accident has increased the popularity of the polyester market." Chen Yuru said.
The golden age of polyester needs to be treated rationally
Many market participants have said that for a downstream weaving enterprise owner, he no longer looks at the market in the end, but looks at whether there is no goods in hand or not. "Everyone is taking it, I want to take it. If you don't take it, I won't take it." It is such a psychology that causes the market to find a gimmick every time to speculate on the market, and the market has a centralized purchase.
For the current polyester market, Chen Zhen thinks it is irrational. "All sales are achieved by speculation. It is not the impact of supply and demand. It is caused by market speculation causing downstream panic, becoming a rush to grab goods, and rushing to increase sales in the market. This market does not know what to maintain. time."
It is understood that in the existing market speculation, on the one hand, Wujiang's production limit, all orders for grey cloth have been transferred a lot, and all the grey cloths in Wujiang area are basically not processed locally in Wujiang, but sent to Shaoxing for processing. On the other hand, polyester taffeta is the thinnest of all fabrics. Most of the existing looms are made of this polyester taffeta, and the most used is FDY. Well, now we are facing a problem. Everyone is worried that the back grey cloth can't be bought. So everyone wants to concentrate on purchasing a wave of grey cloth, but they are facing the rectification of Wujiang printing and dyeing. So everyone will make the gray cloth in Wujiang area as the polyester taffeta. Large-volume purchases were sent to Shaoxing and Huzhou for processing after the purchase, resulting in basically no stock of the polyester taffeta fabric.
July and August are traditional off-seasons, but now it is not a light season. Regarding how long the downstream can be "fire", Chen Yu believes that from the downstream market, after July, the FDY market is basically going almost, DTY will start in mid-July, and DTY will be because of mid-July. The order in the second half of the year followed up. "In the short term, the basic market for polyester downstream will not fade in September and October. If it is too light, it will be around November."
“In the medium term, polyester downstream will be stronger than the upstream in the next two or three years.†Wu Wenhai said that since joining the WTO, the entire PTA polyester industry chain has started from downstream expansion, and the upstream supply bottleneck has been stuck downstream. For many years, it was not until this year that it really began to ease. In his view, the upstream is in surplus in the past two years, and the downstream concentration is increasing, gradually ushered in a golden age. “The two POY production capacity accounts for half of the entire industry. The decline in March and April this year is very obvious. The big factory is very pricey. The small factory has cleared the inventory slightly, so the whole small factory has no inventory in April and May. This is an effect brought about by the increase in market concentration. "As long as you have an order and can sell it, the gross profit will definitely be guaranteed. â€
Judging from the supply and demand pattern, Wu Wenhai believes that “the weak downstream upstream†may last for two to three years. "From this point of view, it is not a good time to do more PTAs. It is a good investment opportunity to do more downstream factories and add more elastic yarns.
Editor in charge: Wang Ning 12
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