Canton Fair "barometer" is not easy light textile difficult to access "Christmas big single"

Yesterday, the third phase of the Canton Fair 2011 was opened, mainly exhibiting textile and apparel, footwear, office, luggage and leisure products, medicine and medical care, and food products. In November, the traditional Western Christmas and New Year holidays are within reach. Over the years, at this time, besides the Westerners, the Pearl River Delta processing and manufacturing companies across the ocean—a large number of Christmas gifts and peripheral orders—have meant great benefits. Because of this, at this time node, the Canton Fair, one of the “main battlefields”, is particularly important. Since the beginning of this session of the Canton Fair, the practice of publishing transactions in the current period has been canceled, and when it is closed, the overall data will be issued in a unified manner. However, judging from the situation provided by third-party agencies and some exhibitors, the situation in the first two months of this year is not optimistic. This undoubtedly makes the clothing and footwear manufacturers who are “ready to go” feel embarrassed.

Newcomers are weak and regular customers are afraid of the "exchange rate." This year's orders are still not comparable to the last round of the economic crisis in 2008. Compared with 2009, it is only about half." Li Xiangjun, head of a children's wear company in Guangzhou who attended the third exhibition of the Canton Fair The reporter from Nandu said that the list at this time of year is basically a Christmas decoration item. “Like a food company that relies on moon cakes every year, we place great importance on orders during this period.” In passing, he gently sighed. Breath. From the opening of the exhibition hall to the departure of the reporters at noon and the South, there were few merchants who asked before Li Xiangjun’s booth, let alone preliminarily finalizing the orders.

He told reporters that the existing orders are basically regular customers. And because it is a long-term customer, it often has a long book period. In this way, he also has to face the issue of constantly fluctuating exchange rates. The only little profit remaining may also disappear with the continued appreciation of ***, doing much more and losing more.

Following the previous trading day, the central parity of the US dollar rose sharply by 187 basis points. Yesterday, the central parity of the US dollar rose another 57 basis points to 6.3233, a record high.

“The basic policy for the appreciation of the US dollar has not changed.” UBS believes that although the process is affected by the European debt crisis and the depreciation of the US dollar, *** may fall or fall, but in the long run, this Does not affect the main tone of appreciation.

This means that for Li Xiangjun, a newcomer to this kind of “fatigue”, the manufacturer, which mainly depends on the regular customers to maintain business, is likely to lose a little bit of profit and continue to appreciate as it continues to appreciate.

Focus on "critical point"

If you do not lose money, you may lose money when you receive the order. Like the economic crisis that occurred three years ago, thousands of people in Guangdong who are doing similar business with Li Xiangjun have begun to face this paradox. Luo Jinwei, who opened a garment factory in Kaiping, is equally worried about the exchange rate, but he is even more afraid of idle production lines and labor. So even if it is a long bill, he still chooses to take it first.

Fortunately, after suffering the global economic crisis three years ago, Luo Jinwei, who had eased "one breath," began to realize the importance of raising the level of production technology, that is, the "industrial upgrading" of the manufacturing industry that has been emphasized in the Pearl River Delta in recent years. In 2009, he did not hesitate to reform the production line and started accepting some high-value-added products of the big brands, which became a good class in the industry.

However, despite this, he still likened his current situation to "warm boiled frogs" -- he has always had orders and the production line started as usual, but when the crisis suddenly reaches a "critical point," he is likely to completely lose his resistance.

Is the “critical point”? In fact, from the manufacturer's perspective, they very much hope that the Canton Fair's data can give some answers. Of course, it is a relatively good answer.

It is noteworthy that this session of the Canton Fair canceled the practice of publishing transactions in the current period, that is, to the end of the third period, the official will not publish three sessions of the Fair data. This will undoubtedly make the apparel and footwear manufacturer, one of the protagonists of the Canton Fair Phase 3, unable to refer to transaction data from other industries.

The first and second phases of the link are not optimistic. Light industry product sales have declined in Europe and the United States. However, some third-party agencies still use their own methods to count and publish some of the data. The situation is not optimistic.

For example, in the first phase of the Canton Fair, electromechanical products were mainly exhibited. The China Chamber of Commerce and Industry publishes statistical data, saying that the cumulative turnover of mechanical and electrical products in the first three days of the first period was US$8.66 billion, an increase of 5.2% from the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 15%, accounting for 86.9% of the total turnover of the Canton Fair in the same period.

The second phase was mainly light industrial products. According to statistics from the China Light Industry and Commerce Association, the total turnover of the first three days of light industry and commerce will be US$4.86 billion, an increase of 7.1% over the same period of last year. In addition, due to the current economic weakness in Europe and the United States, this year's trade in Europe and the United States has declined compared to the previous session, a decrease of 6.1% in Europe and a 7.4% decline in the United States. However, exports to Asian and African countries and regions increased by 16.3% and 10.2% respectively. However, since the cardinality of the two regions is different, the ratio can only be used as a reference.